The Academy isn't perfect. In only my lifetime, we can look at the years in film of 1998, 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2010 for examples of years in which the best film (by consensus on her and many other sites) nominated for Best Picture by the Academy did not end up winning the award.
So I thought it would be fun to look at each year going back to 1999 (and 1991; I will explain that later) to see what films "should have" won the grand prize at the Oscars.
I decided the use the three most popular movie review websites to do this; that is, IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Metacritic. Given the way each of the websites scores a film, I will refer to the movies with the highest score in a given year from these websites as "most popular," "most likable," and "most acclaimed," respectively. I am aware that these scores don't perfectly reflect public or critical sentiment, but I think they come close enough to get the job done.
As far as the years go, from 1991 to 1998, I only compared Best Picture winners with films that were deemed the "most popular" of those years (that is, movies with the highest IMDb score to come out that year). From 1999 to the present, I used all three websites. The reasoning is simple: IMDb was created in late 1990, Rotten Tomatoes in late 1998, and Metacritic in early 1999. Generally, any movies which came out before these times that are scored by these websites have reviews that are too positively skewed.
A Note on Methodology
The process I used is, I hope, simple to understand and explain. For the years 1991-2018, I looked at all Best Picture nominees (and only nominees; trying to decide what constitutes a "snub" is another problem in itself), and I found which of these movies has the highest user score on IMDb in order to declare it the "most popular" picture of the year. For the years 1999-2018, I did the same with Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic in order to name the "most likable" and "most acclaimed" pictures of the year, respectively.
As far as ties go, generally speaking, popularity breaks a tie. A movie with a 7.7 with 250,000 reviews on IMDb is "more popular," to me, than a movie with a 7.7 and 200,000 reviews. Similarly, a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 150 reviews is "more likable" than a 95% based on 50 reviews. Following this same line of thinking, a 95% on Metacritic based on 50 reviews is stronger than a 95% based on 20 reviews. It's not a perfect system, but it was the best I could think of in the moment.
There was only one case where the tiebreaker was insufficient. (The Metacritic scores for Birdman vs. Whiplash in 2014) In this case, I went to user score. This was an isolated incident, but in the spirit of full disclosure, that was my methodology for breaking ties.
Skip here for the fun part
I only refer to the year in film, not the year of the Oscars themselves. In the first column, for years after 2008, I have put in parentheses the number of Best Picture nominees. In the last three columns, I have put in parentheses the placement of that year's Best Picture winner in the respective category pertaining to the column. For example, in the row 1994, under IMDb ("most popular"), it says "The Shawshank Redemption (3)." This means that The Shawshank Redemption has the highest user score on IMDb for the year 1994 and that Forrest Gump, that year's Best Picture winner, has the third-highest IMDb user score among the nominees of that year. Now, on to the chart:
| Year | Best Picture | Most Popular (BP's rank) | Most Likable (BP's rank) | Most Acclaimed (BP's rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs | n/a | n/a |
| 1992 | Unforgiven | Unforgiven | n/a | n/a |
| 1993 | Schindler's List | Schindler's List | n/a | n/a |
| 1994 | Forrest Gump | The Shawshank Redemption (3) | n/a | n/a |
| 1995 | Braveheart | Braveheart | n/a | n/a |
| 1996 | The English Patient | Fargo (3) | n/a | n/a |
| 1997 | Titanic | Good Will Hunting (3) | n/a | n/a |
| 1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Saving Private Ryan (5) | n/a | n/a |
| 1999 | American Beauty | The Green Mile (2) | The Insider (2) | American Beauty |
| 2000 | Gladiator | Gladiator | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (4) | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (4) |
| 2001 | A Beautiful Mind | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2) | In the Bedroom (5) | The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (4) |
| 2002 | Chicago | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (5) | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (3) | The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (3) |
| 2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Lost in Translation (2) | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2004 | Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby | Sideways (2) | Sideways (2) |
| 2005 | Crash | Crash | Good Night and Good Luck (5) | Capote (5) |
| 2006 | The Departed | The Departed | The Queen (2) | The Queen (3) |
| 2007 | No Country for Old Men | There Will Be Blood (2) | Juno (2) | There Will Be Blood (2) |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire | Frost/Nixon (3) | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2009 (10) | The Hurt Locker | Inglourious Basterds (6) | Up (2) | The Hurt Locker |
| 2010 (10) | The King's Speech | Inception (4) | Toy Story 3 (4) | The Social Network (4) |
| 2011 (9) | The Artist | The Help (2) | The Artist | The Artist |
| 2012 (9) | Argo | Django Unchained (5) | Argo | Zero Dark Thirty (3) |
| 2013 (9) | 12 Years a Slave | The Wolf of Wall Street (2) | Gravity (2) | 12 Years a Slave |
| 2014 (8) | Birdman | Whiplash (5) | Selma (4) | Boyhood (4) |
| 2015 (8) | Spotlight | Room (3) | Mad Max: Fury Road (2) | Spotlight |
| 2016 (9) | Hacksaw Ridge (8) | Hell or High Water (2) | Moonlight | |
| 2017 (9) | The Shape of Water | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (8) | Lady Bird (5) | Dunkirk (6) |
| 2018 (8) | TBA | Green Book | Black Panther | Roma |
Takeaways from Before 1999
Shakespeare in Love was, relatively speaking, the least popular Best Picture winner, which surprises approximately no one. There are no real shocks in my mind from 1991 to 1999. The general consensus on here and on other movie sites is that any of the big three of 1994 (especially Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption) would have been acceptable winners. Fargo is usually seen as having been a better film that The English Patient, and Good Will Hunting and L.A. Confidential are both more enjoyed by the average moviegoer than Titanic, it seems. Again, no big surprises.
Takeaways from 1999 to 2008
Although the most popular film of the pool in 2000, Gladiator wasn't exactly loved by critics, ranking number four in the last two categories. Critics seemed to have thought that Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was the best movie of the five selected.
The very next year, another Russell Crowe movie got mauled by critics. A Beautiful Mind, ranking fifth most likable (out of five) and fourth most acclaimed, seems to be another that might not have deserved the win. If any, the "correct" winner may have been the ever-popular The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.
The fact that Chicago didn't fair well is about as surprising as the reaction to Shakespeare in Love in 1998. Critically, two movies stick out as head-and-shoulders above the rest, The Pianist and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, with (perhaps) surprisingly, the latter beating out the former on both Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic.
Everything that can be said about Crash has been. It is the only movie of all 28 of these that ranked dead last in the pool from critics on both websites. It did surprise me to find that it was the most popular film of the five, though.
With the amount of people today who say that Slumdog Millionaire didn't deserve to win, I was surprised to see that it was a pretty clear winner in 2008, leading in both popularity and praise. (It was only about five percentage points behind Frost/Nixon on Rotten Tomatoes, as well.)
Takeaways from 2009 Onward
In 2010, we get our first year of "full contention," in which every column lists a different film, with the movie most often considered to be the rightful winner the most acclaimed movie of the year. In fact, it seems as though the actual Best Picture winner was consistently the fourth-best movie that year (of the ten nominated).
For 2011, read the entry on 2008.
For 2014, we get a near carbon copy of 2010, except with the prevailing opinion that Birdman will hold up extremely well, whereas The King's Speech might not. The odd way Birdman was shot, coupled with the dark comedy aspect of it, helps to lower it a few notches on all three websites, in my estimation.
In 2017, the odd selection of The Shape of Water can be somewhat quantified here. Rotten Tomatoes put it as the fifth most likable movie of the year (of only nine), and that was its highest ranking across all three categories. Again, like Birdman, this was a very artistic movie and the dark fantastical aspect can turn many people away from it, fans and critics alike.
Statistics
In 27 years, the Best Picture winner has been the most popular nominee ten times, with none since 2008. (10/27)
In 19 years, the Best Picture winner has been the most likable nominee twice. (2/19)
In 19 years, the Best Picture winner has been the most acclaimed nominee seven times. (8/19)
Percentage-wise, IMDb is a good predictor, but this might be offset by limited usage in the site's early years. Three of the past four years, Metacritic has been spot-on with the Academy. It would not be completely unwise to predict that Roma will win best picture this year, placing first for most acclaimed and third for most likable (by my standards; it is technically tied with BlacKkKlansman).
Superlatives (No Tiebreakers)
Least popular film to win Best Picture: Shakespeare in Love, 1998 (7.1 based on 198,873 votes)
Most popular film to win Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, 2003 (8.9 based on 1,462,260 votes) AND Schindler's List, 1993 (8.9 based on 1,063,434 votes)
Most popular film not to win Best Picture: The Shawshank Redemption, 1994 (9.3 based on 2,053,828 votes)
Least likable film to win Best Picture: Forrest Gump, 1994 (72% based on 92 reviews)
Most likable film to win Best Picture: Moonlight, 2016 (98% based on 350 reviews)
Most likable film not to win Best Picture: Lady Bird, 2017 (99% based on 354 reviews) AND Selma, 2015 (99% based on 292 reviews)
Least acclaimed film to win Best Picture: Gladiator, 2000 (67% based on 46 critics)
Most acclaimed film to win Best Picture: Moonlight, 2016 (99% based on 53 critics)
Most acclaimed film not to win Best Picture: Boyhood, 2014 (100% based on 50 critics)
Conclusion
Obviously, this turned out longer than I planned for it to be, but I hope someone can find it pretty cool. Thanks.
Submitted February 17, 2019 at 10:31AM by tbteabagger69 http://bit.ly/2GuRKpx